QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 22 ноября 2020

Опубликовано: 2020 Nov 21 1234 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 01121
Состояние солнечной активности на 21 Nov 2020, 1233UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 21 Nov 2020 до 23 Nov 2020)
SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 21 Nov 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 083, A-индекс: 006
Прогноз на 22 Nov 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 087, A-индекс: 022
Прогноз на 23 Nov 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 089, A-индекс: 019

Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar activity was at low levels with two C-class flares registered in the past 24 hours. A C1 flare (peak at 18:44 UTC) was produced from an active region behind the east limb and a C1.9 flare with peak time at 17:03UTC on Nov 20th was produced by active region NOAA 2783 (Hsx/alpha). A new unnamed and unclassified active region has formed in the north-east quadrant, approximately at N32E35. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a 50% chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M class flare. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels. Enhancements of the > 2MeV electron flux and fluence are foreseen within the next 24 hours related to the expected arrival of a high speed stream originating from coronal hole CH 96. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed was relatively stable with maximal velocity remaining below 390 km/s (ACE and DSCOVR). The total magnetic field reached a maximal strength of 7 nT with Bz component varying between -6 nT and 6 nT. The phi angle showed long periods in the positive sectors and is currently fluctuating between the positive and negative sectors. Geomagnetic activity was globally quiet with a single locally unsettled period when K Dourbes registered 3. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours due to the foreseen arrival of a high speed stream (HSS) originating from coronal hole CH 96 by the morning of Nov. 22nd. With the arrival of the HSS there are slight chances for a minor geomagnetic storm.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 021,
получено на основе анализа результатов 14 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 20 Nov 2020
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 011
Плотность потока излучения: 082
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 009
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 008
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 007
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 010,
получено на основе анализа результатов 30 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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