QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 30 ноября 2020

Опубликовано: 2020 Nov 29 1232 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 01129
Состояние солнечной активности на 29 Nov 2020, 1231UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 29 Nov 2020 до 01 Dec 2020)
SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 29 Nov 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 111, A-индекс: 004
Прогноз на 30 Nov 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 113, A-индекс: 005
Прогноз на 01 Dec 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 113, A-индекс: 003

Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2786 (Beta-Gamma) has been most active, producing multiple low- level C-class flares, including a C3.1 flare that peaked at 23:18 UT Nov 28. There are four further numbered active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2783 (Alpha), which is now close to rotating over the west solar limb, and NOAA AR 2787 (Alpha) remained quiet. Further spot development and flux emergence to the west of NOAA 2785 at S27W05 has been designated as a separate active region, numbered NOAA AR2788 (Alpha). Another simple (Alpha) unnumbered region has also emerged at S28W55. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA AR 2786. An isolated M-class flare also remains possible. No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold between 12:40 and 20:50 UT Nov 28. During the next 24 hours, the electron flux is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu level again. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed decreased from around 440 to 350 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength ranged between 2 and 8 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -6 nT with an extended period of negative Bz from 04:30 UT Nov 29. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed towards the Sun (phi angle in the negative sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values of 1-3 and 0-3, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels for the next 24 hours with some unsettled conditions possible in response to prolonged periods of negative Bz.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 084,
получено на основе анализа результатов 13 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 28 Nov 2020
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Плотность потока излучения: 110
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 011
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 012
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 011
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 072,
получено на основе анализа результатов 23 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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