QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 4 декабря 2020

Опубликовано: 2020 Dec 03 1241 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 01203
Состояние солнечной активности на 03 Dec 2020, 1240UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 03 Dec 2020 до 05 Dec 2020)
SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Слабая магнитная буря (A>=30, K=5)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 03 Dec 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 105, A-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 04 Dec 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 102, A-индекс: 032
Прогноз на 05 Dec 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 098, A-индекс: 011

Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar activity was low with the largest flare of the period a C1.7 flare peaking at 1:56UT from NOAA AR 2786. There are 3 regions on disk. The largest is NOAA AR 2786, which although large now has a simple alpha configuration. Region NOAA AR 2790 is of beta configuration but was inactive. Further C flares are probable with only a small chance of an isolated M flare. There were no new observations of Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained enhanced (max 5 pfu), with a general decaying trend. The greater than 2MeV electron flux did briefly exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the diurnal maximum. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours. An increase in levels is still possible over the next days following the recent Solar wind enhancements, and with the possible CME glancing blow. Solar wind conditions became nominal with Solar wind speed further decreasing to 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was around a nominal 5nT with a variable and unremarkable North-South orientation. The phi angle was mostly in the negative sector (towards the Sun). There were no signs of possible perturbations associated to the November 29 CME and this is now not expected anymore. Essentially nominal Solar wind conditions are expected with a slight chance for perturbations from the morning of December 4 onwards associated to the December 1 CME. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 0-2 and NOAA Kp 0-1). Geomagnetic conditions could possibly become active or show minor geomagnetic storm conditions should a glancing blow from the December 1 CME occur.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 039,
получено на основе анализа результатов 07 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 02 Dec 2020
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 050
Плотность потока излучения: 105
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 004
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 003
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 002
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 043,
получено на основе анализа результатов 12 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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