QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 6 декабря 2020

Опубликовано: 2020 Dec 05 1231 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 01205
Состояние солнечной активности на 05 Dec 2020, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 05 Dec 2020 до 07 Dec 2020)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 05 Dec 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 094, A-индекс: 005
Прогноз на 06 Dec 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 092, A-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 07 Dec 2020: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 090, A-индекс: 007

Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar activity was low, with the largest flare a C1.6 flare peaking at 00:38 from NOAA AR 2790. NOAA AR 2785 has rotated off the disk. This leaves on disk: NOAA AR 2790, of beta type and source of the mentioned C1.6 flare; NOAA AR 2786, the large alfa region which is in decay and now mostly inactive, though showing a C1.2 flare peaking at 11:29; as well as a new active region that rotated on the disk yesterday, and now seems to develop spots but is yet unnumbered. Further isolated C flaring is possible in the next 24 h. The C1.6 flare was associated with a dimming and a possibly associated faint and narrow Eastward CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO coronagraph data. It is not expected to influence Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data. The greater than 10MeV proton flux is near background levels and is expected to remain near background levels. The greater than 2MeV electron flux did not exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next days. Accuracy of current DSCOVR measurements of Solar wind speed and temperature, seem to suffer from low density conditions. Based also on ACE measurements, Earth is believed to be in a nominal slow Solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was in the 4-7.5nT range. Some periods with more sustained southward orientation of the magnetic field occurred recently (with Bz down to -5nT). The phi angle was mostly in the negative sector (towards the Sun). As far as possibly detectable, there are no signs of an influence of the December 1 CME. Essentially nominal Solar wind conditions are expected over the next days. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with an isolated local unsettled period recently (local K Dourbes 0-3 and NOAA Kp 0-1). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 036,
получено на основе анализа результатов 11 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 04 Dec 2020
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Плотность потока излучения: 096
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 002
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 000
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 001
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 034,
получено на основе анализа результатов 16 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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