QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 23 февраля 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Feb 22 1230 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10222
Состояние солнечной активности на 22 Feb 2021, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 22 Feb 2021 до 24 Feb 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Слабая магнитная буря (A>=30, K=5)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 22 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 075, A-индекс: 018
Прогноз на 23 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 075, A-индекс: 031
Прогноз на 24 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 075, A-индекс: 008

Комментарий (на английском языке): The solar activity has been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. The sunspot (Catania 73, NOAA-AR 2803) remained quiet on the visible solar disc without any significant flaring activity. A new northern central small region, of beta-gamma configuration, appeared. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained mainly over the 1000 pfu threshold. The electron flux is expected to remain on this level from the combined effects of the negative polarity Coronal Holes (CH) due to the enhancement of the solar wind conditions and the arrival of the expected CME from Feb 20. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence remained on moderate levels in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, the Earth has remained under the influence of the fast solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 540 km/s and 625 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 3 nT and 6 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -6 nT and 5 nT. The fast solar wind streams associated with southern coronal holes (negative magnetic polarity) are expected to have a decreasing influence on the solar wind environment near Earth for the 24 hours, possibly followed by a solar wind shock due to the arrival of the CME on Feb 20. The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were unsettled, to active. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain in the same levels with a slight chance of minor storm conditions (Kp and K-Dourbes equal to 5) in response to the enhancement of the solar wind parameters and possible prolonged periods of southward directed Bz component and the CME on Feb 20.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 017,
получено на основе анализа результатов 19 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 21 Feb 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Плотность потока излучения: 075
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 032
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): ///
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 026
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 011,
получено на основе анализа результатов 22 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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