QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 25 февраля 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Feb 24 1236 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10224
Состояние солнечной активности на 24 Feb 2021, 1235UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 24 Feb 2021 до 26 Feb 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 24 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 078, A-индекс: 014
Прогноз на 25 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 078, A-индекс: 008
Прогноз на 26 Feb 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 077, A-индекс: 004

Комментарий (на английском языке): The solar activity has been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. Regions Catania 74/NOAA AR 2804 and Catania 75/NOAA 12805 has a low flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained over the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence remained on moderate levels in the past 24 hours. Both the electron flux and fluence are expected to remain elevated, with a decreasing trend, due to possible effects of the CME from Feb. 20 that could have an impact on Earth. The solar wind speed ranged between 450 km/s and 600 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 3 nT and 9 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -7 nT and 7 nT. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly to the negative sector (towards the Sun), with an exception of early Feb 24. Regarding the CME on Feb 20, data from Stereo A indicate possible arrival on Feb 23 12:00UT. At the same time, data from DSCOVR show an increase in the magnetic field and a decrease in temperature at about Feb 24 04:00UT which could be a mark of the arrival of the ICME to Earth. This will be confirmed later as more data comes in. Solar wind conditions are anticipated to remain at about these levels for the next 24 hours. The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active event early Feb 24 (K Dourbes and Kp=4) corresponding to the positive polarity of the IMF. They are expected to remain unsettled, depending on any impact of the possible shock from the arrival of the CME on Feb 20.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 034,
получено на основе анализа результатов 16 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 23 Feb 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 038
Плотность потока излучения: 078
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): ///
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): ///
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 014
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 032,
получено на основе анализа результатов 27 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

---