QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 4 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 03 1252 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10303
Состояние солнечной активности на 03 Mar 2021, 1251UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 03 Mar 2021 до 05 Mar 2021)
SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Слабая магнитная буря (A>=30, K=5)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 03 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 076, A-индекс: 025
Прогноз на 04 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 077, A-индекс: 021
Прогноз на 05 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 077, A-индекс: 017

Комментарий (на английском языке): New beta regions NOAA 2806 and 2807 appeared on the Sun. Region 2807 produced a C1.2 flare peaking at 00:03 UTC on March 3. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from region 2807, is estimated at 50%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. Moderate values are possible in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours. There is a chance for moderate levels in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR further increased from about 590 km/s to about 695 km/s, with current values around 615 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 12 nT, with current values around 5 nT. Bz was below -5 nT between about 13h and 14h and between about 19h and 22h UTC on March 2, as well as during a few shorter time intervals. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Late on March 4 or on March 5, we expect the arrival of a high speed stream associated with a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on March 1. Quiet to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 5; NOAA Kp between 3 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. Minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 5) are possible on March 3, 4 and 5, with a chance for moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6).Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 031,
получено на основе анализа результатов 15 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 02 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 014
Плотность потока излучения: 075
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 047
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): ///
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 026
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 013,
получено на основе анализа результатов 21 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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