QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 12 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 11 1230 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10311
Состояние солнечной активности на 11 Mar 2021, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 11 Mar 2021 до 13 Mar 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 11 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 077, A-индекс: 008
Прогноз на 12 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 076, A-индекс: 010
Прогноз на 13 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 076, A-индекс: 026

Комментарий (на английском языке): The Catania group 78 (NOAA 2808) remained quiet in the last 24 hours as it produced only a weak B flare. It is expected to continue at this level of activity in the next 24 hours as it appears to be in a decaying phase. The newly emerged Catania group 79 is still in an early stage of development and is not expected to have any activity beyond B-level. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in coronagraph data. The low latitude corona hole of negative polarity in the southern hemisphere has now crossed the central solar meridian. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked over the 1000 pfu event threshold during its diurnal maximum and may do so again today. The 24h electron fluence reached moderate levels and is expected to drop slowly over the next days. The solar wind continued to decline and it will remain under slow conditions until the arrival of the boundary crossing late on the 12th March (at the earliest), or the 13th March (most likely). The solar wind speed is below 400 km/s and is expected to slowly continue the decline in the next 24 hours. From 13th March onwards the anticipated boundary crossing and the high speed stream expected afterward will likely increase the magnetic field strength and the solar wind speed to above 500 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp: 0-2, local K Dourbes had values 0-3) . They are expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase to unsettled to active conditions is expected afterwards due to the expected sector boundary crossing and enhanced solar wind conditions.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 022,
получено на основе анализа результатов 11 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 10 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 022
Плотность потока излучения: 079
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 005
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 001
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 002
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 015,
получено на основе анализа результатов 21 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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