QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 14 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 13 1230 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10313
Состояние солнечной активности на 13 Mar 2021, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 13 Mar 2021 до 15 Mar 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 13 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 076, A-индекс: 026
Прогноз на 14 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 075, A-индекс: 031
Прогноз на 15 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 075, A-индекс: 019

Комментарий (на английском языке): NOAA active region 2808 (Catania groups 78 and 90) produced just a single B2.5 flare peaking at 19:04UT. Otherwise X-ray flux remained below B level. Active region NOAA 2809 decayed into plage, while region 2808 maintained its trailing spots but did not show any further significant growth. X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in coronagraph data. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked briefly over the 1000 pfu event threshold before dipping to low values. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at low to normal levels today, before being expected to start a gradual increase due to the enhanced solar wind conditions. The expected increase in Solar wind conditions (associated to the negative polarity coronal hole on the Southern hemisphere) is observed to be setting in. After reaching a minimum of 320 km/s early in the period Solar wind speed started to increase, now reaching just over 400 km/s. Total magnetic field reached up to 15nT and the Bz component reached Southward deviations up to -11nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was directed towards the Sun (as indicated by the phi angle). A further increase in Solar wind speed is expected over the next 24 hours up to possibly over 500 km/s. Magnetic field magnitude may remain enhanced initially but should start to decrease gradually as the Solar wind speed reaches its maximum. Geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to see active periods in the next 24-48 hours before returning to quiet to unsettled conditions.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 011,
получено на основе анализа результатов 17 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 12 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 023
Плотность потока излучения: 077
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 028
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 014
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 014
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 012,
получено на основе анализа результатов 24 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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