QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 26 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 25 1230 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10325
Состояние солнечной активности на 25 Mar 2021, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 25 Mar 2021 до 27 Mar 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 25 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 080, A-индекс: 021
Прогноз на 26 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 079, A-индекс: 010
Прогноз на 27 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 078, A-индекс: 026

Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar activity was at very low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2811 and 2812 produced only B-class flares. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. An equatorial negative polarity coronal hole crossed the central meridian yesterday, its associated high speed stream will arrive at the Earth in about 48 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold on 24 March, and below it on 25 March, it is expected to remain low in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the last 24 hours and is expected to go to normal levels in the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied between 380 km/s to 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude varied between 1 and 8 nT. Bz was between 4 and -7 nT. The magnetic field phi angle had mostly positive polarity (away form the Sun). There are signs of an ICME in the solar wind starting around 19:00 UT, corresponding to the expected arrival of the CME from 20 March. This was marked mostly by a sudden increase in solar wind speed and magnetic field and followed by several hours of negative Bz. Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels at planetary levels (Kp = 5) and active levels locally (KDourbes = 4), due to the ICME arrival. The CME observed on 22 March is expected to arrive to the Earth on March 26-27, it is expected to cause at most active conditions (otherwise mostly quiet conditions expected).Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 024,
получено на основе анализа результатов 16 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 24 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 030
Плотность потока излучения: 084
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 027
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 013
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 012
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 027,
получено на основе анализа результатов 23 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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