QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 13 мая 2022

Опубликовано: 2022 May 12 1232 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 20512
Состояние солнечной активности на 12 May 2022, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 12 May 2022 до 14 May 2022)
SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 12 May 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 133, A-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 13 May 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 133, A-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 14 May 2022: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 133, A-индекс: 010
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with four M-class flares and multiple low to high C-class flaring rom active regions NOAA 3007 and NOAA 3006, as well as from regions behind the east and behind the west limb. Three low M-class flares, including a pronounced M2.7-class flare (peak time 18:58 UTC on May 11th), were registered from behind the west limb, most probably originating from active region NOAA 3004. The strongest activity on disc was an M1.6-class flare (start time 16:35 UTC, peak time 16:49 UTC, end time 16:58 UTC on May 11th), produced by NOAA AR 3007. Further high C-class flaring was produced from the new active region at the east limb, which will rotate into view later today. Active region NOAA 3006 has slightly shrunk, decreased in complexity and is now classified as magnetic type beta. It has produced only few low C-class flaring over the past 24h. Active region NOAA 3007 (beta-gamma-delta) has grown further and is expected to remain the source of high C and M-class flaring. The new active regions in the southern hemisphere are now classified as NOAA 3008 (beta) and NOAA 3009 (beta). They have remained stable and inactive. The active region from the east limb is now rotating over the limb and is likely to be the source of further high C-class flaring and possible M-class flares. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at moderate levels with probable M-class flaring and some chances for X-class flaring. A large prominence eruption was detected by LASCO C2 at 18:48 UTC on May 11th following M-class flaring from behind the west limb. The related coronal mass ejection (CME) is back-sided and not geo-effective. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery. The 10 MeV proton flux registered enhancements over the past 24 hours due to the M-class flaring and resulting CME from over the west limb last night. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours with possible further enhancements subject to flaring activity and related eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to low levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered weak solar wind structure, resulting mostly in slightly enhanced magnetic field strength. The solar wind velocity remained low ranging between 265 km/s and 321 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 11 nT with a minimum Bz of -10 nT. The B field orientation was mostly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to reflect mostly background solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours with possible weak transients. The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled due to prolonged periods with slightly enhanced negative Bz. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with isolated unsettled periods are expected for the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 111,
получено на основе анализа результатов 20 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 11 May 2022
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 098
Плотность потока излучения: 133
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 012
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 007
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 006
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 081,
получено на основе анализа результатов 26 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
11 1635 1649 1658 S33W16 M1.6 SF 01/3006
11 1813 1858 1927 ////// M2.6 /////// II/2IV/2
11 1927 1931 1935 S25E37 M2.2 SF 02/3007