QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 3 апреля 2023

Опубликовано: 2023 Apr 02 1231 UTC SIDC URSIGRAM 30402 Состояние солнечной активности на 02 Apr 2023, 1230UT Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 02 Apr 2023 до 04 Apr 2023) Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50% Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4) Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние Прогноз на 02 Apr 2023: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 125, A-индекс: 013 Прогноз на 03 Apr 2023: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 125, A-индекс: 008 Прогноз на 04 Apr 2023: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 125, A-индекс: 005 Комментарий (на английском языке): Over the past 24 hours, the solar flaring activity was at very low levels with only one low C-class flare observed. Currently there are five numbered active regions on the visible side of the solar disk. All of these regions have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha or beta). We expect the solar flaring activity to stay at low levels for the next 24 hours, with a small possibility for C-class flares. One halo CME has been observed by SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs. It was seen for the first time at 12:36UT on April 1 in SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view. This CME was found to be back-sided and will not impact Earth. The greater than 10MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2MeV electron flux has been above the threshold for most of the past 24 hours with a peak at 15:25 UT on April 1. Since 22:30UT on April 1 it has returned to background levels. We expect the greater than 2MeV electron flux to stay at background levels for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. We expect this to go back to normal levels over the next 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed has stayed almost constant with values of about 520 to 580 km/s, characterised by the continued high speed stream (HSS) influence. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was about 5-7nT. We expect the solar wind speed will start to slowly decline over the next 24 hours as the influence of the HSS fades. Two small, negative polarity coronal holes have crossed the centre of the solar disk on March 31 and April 1 and are expected to start to influence the solar wind over the next 1-2 days. We do not expect a strong impact of the solar wind originating from these coronal holes. During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled. A short interval of active conditions was reported by local station at Dourbes around 13:00 UT and 19:00 UT on April 1 (K was between 2 and 4), and by NOAA at around midnight on April 2 (Kp was between 3 and 4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay unsettled for the next 24 hours. Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 043, получено на основе анализа результатов 10 станций наблюдения. Солнечные индексы за 01 Apr 2023 Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): /// Плотность потока излучения: 125 A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 031 A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 016 Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 016 Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 046, получено на основе анализа результатов 12 станций наблюдения. Прошедшие события на Солнце: DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES Не зарегистрировано