QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 1 сентября 2025

Опубликовано: 31 августа 2025 в 1232 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 50831
Состояние солнечной активности на 31 августа 2025, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 31 августа 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 222 / AP-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 01 сентября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 222 / AP-индекс: 060
Прогноз на 02 сентября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 222 / AP-индекс: 023
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Three M-class flares were detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a M2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 5391) peaking on August 30 at 20:02 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 617 (NOAA Active Region 4199). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A halo CME erupted on 30 August, first seen at 20:12 UT on SOHO LASCO C2. The CME was associated with an M2.7 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 617 (NOAA 4199), located at N04E01 (almost at disk center). This CME is Earth directed, preliminary speeds calculation estimates are about 1600 km/s, with an arrival time around 14:00 UT on 1 September. These values may be updated in the coming hours as the result of ongoing analysis. Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 122 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity) is in the western hemisphere and its associated high speed solar wind is expected today. Solar wind: The solar wind speed is starting to increase (currently at 450 km/s) as a result of the expected arrival from the high speed solar wind from SIDC Coronal Hole 122. This is a narrow coronal hole, so the associated high speed stream in the coming hours is expected to be short and mild in terms of speed. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (Kp and K_Bel between 0 and 3). Active conditions can be expected for today and up to major storm conditions tomorrow when the CME from 30 August is expected to arrive. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been below the 10 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain at nominal levels. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and 19 remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The 24 h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 196,
получено на основе анализа результатов 17 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 30 Aug 2025
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 317
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 014
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 006
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 007
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 196,
получено на основе анализа результатов 24 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
30 1400 1409 1423 ////// M1.3 94/4197
30 1551 1559 1612 ////// M1.2 94/4197
30 1911 2002 2041 ////// M2.7 95/4199