QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 16 октября 2025

Опубликовано: 15 октября 2025 в 1239 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 51015
Состояние солнечной активности на 15 октября 2025, 1238UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Слабая магнитная буря (A>=30, K=5)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 15 октября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 160 / AP-индекс: 011
Прогноз на 16 октября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 165 / AP-индекс: 029
Прогноз на 17 октября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 170 / AP-индекс: 012
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 6 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an M4.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5780) peaking on October 15 at 04:15 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246). This region continued to increase in size and complexity and was responsible for most of the M-class flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot group 621 (NOAA Active region 4248) also increased in complexity and produced an M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 5759) peaking on October 14 at 12:47 UTC. The remaining regions on disk were mostly quiet and either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind: The solar wind conditions reflected the ongoing waning influence of the high-speed stream associated with the large equatorial coronal hole that first began to cross the central meridian on October 08 (SIDC Coronal Hole 116). The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 650 km/s to around 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 1 and 6 nT. Bz ranged between -4 nT and 5 nT. Over the next 24 hours the solar wind conditions may become enhanced from early on October 16, due to a possible CME arrival from the CME observed on October 12. Further disturbances may be expected late on October 16 due to the glancing blow from the CMEs observed on October 13. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions (Kp 4- ), due to the ongoing high speed stream influence. Locally, active conditions were observed (K Bel 3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on October 15, with periods of minor storm conditions (Kp 5) possible from October 16 in response to the possible CME arrival. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase related to any high-level flaring, particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246). Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 116,
получено на основе анализа результатов 08 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 14 Oct 2025
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 172
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 154
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 015
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 008
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 008
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 125,
получено на основе анализа результатов 19 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
14 1238 1247 1256 N06W07 M2.0 1 59/4248
14 2028 2036 2045 ////// M3.1 58/4246
15 0349 0415 0436 ////// M4.8 58/4246