QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 12 ноября 2025

Опубликовано: 11 ноября 2025 в 1255 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 51111
Состояние солнечной активности на 11 ноября 2025, 1254UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Началось протонное событие (вспышка) (>10 MeV)
Прогноз на 11 ноября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180 / AP-индекс: 022
Прогноз на 12 ноября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180 / AP-индекс: 051
Прогноз на 13 ноября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180 / AP-индекс: 007
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours. Eight numbered sunspot groups were on the disk. The largest flare was an X5.1 event that peaked at 10:04 UTC on 11 Nov from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274) at N23 W23. A Type II radio emission was observed around 10:40 UTC, which is associated with the X5.1 flare. Two M-class flares were also produced by this region: an M1.5 at 19:57 UTC on 10 Nov and an M1.4 at 08:09 UTC on 11 Nov. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A full halo CME was observed on 10 Nov following the X1.2 flare (SIDC CME 559) from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274). The true radial speed is estimated at about 1300 km/s. The arrival of the associated interplanetary shock at Earth is expected late on 11 Nov to early on 12 Nov. A Type II radio emission alert was observed at 10:40 UTC on 11 Nov. This burst is associated with the X5.1 flare that peaked at 10:04 UTC from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274). Type II bursts are typically linked to shock-driven eruptions and often indicate an accompanying CME, from this an estimated shock speed of 1350 km/s was given. However, speed estimates from radiospectrography carry methodological uncertainties and should be treated as preliminary. Further analysis is ongoing as additional coronagraph imagery becomes available to refine the true speed and assess any Earth-directed component. Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 126, an mid-north coronal hole with negative polarity, has returned on the disk and is currently situated on the western side of the Sun. Solar wind: During the last 24 hours the solar wind speed ranged around 410 to 590 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field, Bt ,varied between about 0.4 and 8.7 nT, while the southward component, Bz, ranged from roughly -4.6 nT to 6.4 nT. Conditions are expected to become disturbed late on 11 Nov into 12 Nov with the anticipated arrival of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 559) associated with the X1.2 event (SIDC Flare 6010) that peaked on 10 November at 09:19 UTC, and produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled overall with periods of active constions. NOAA Kp reached 4 around 15 to 18 UTC on 10 Nov, otherwise 1 to 3. The Belgian K index similarly peaked near 4 in the late afternoon and briefly again around 23 to 00 UTC, then eased to 1 to 2 through the morning of 11 Nov. Over the next 24 hours, quiet to unsettled conditions are most likely, with isolated active periods possible if Bz turns persistently southward. Additional disturbances remain possible late on 11 to early 12 Nov with the expected CME arrival. The geomagnetic response will depend on the magnetic field orientation within the ejecta and could reach major storm levels (Kp 6 to Kp 7). Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux crossed the 10 pfu threshold at 11:30 UTC on 10 November following the X1.2 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 and has remained at event levels since then. Around 10:00-10:10 UTC on 11 November, coincident with the X5.1 flare from the same region, the flux increased further. The higher energy channels responded promptly as well, with clear rises at ?50 MeV, ?100 MeV and a noticeable rise at ?500 MeV, indicating a hard-spectrum SEP component. Proton flux is expected to remain elevated over the next 24 hours, with additional enhancements possible if further major flares occur or as CME- driven shocks propagate from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu at the start of the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to fluctuate around the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 150,
получено на основе анализа результатов 07 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 10 Nov 2025
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): ///
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 019
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 014
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 157,
получено на основе анализа результатов 15 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
10 1946 1957 2003 N21W20 M1.5 2N ///4274 VI/2
11 0802 0809 0813 N21W31 M1.4 SF ///4274
11 0949 1004 1017 ////// X5.1 ///4274 II/3VI/3III/2