QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 3 декабря 2025

Опубликовано: 02 декабря 2025 в 1240 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 51202
Состояние солнечной активности на 02 декабря 2025, 1239UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Ожидается увеличение возмущенности (уровни активности повысятся,
но точного числового прогноза нет)
Прогноз на 02 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 198 / AP-индекс: 005
Прогноз на 03 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 200 / AP-индекс: 020
Прогноз на 04 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 202 / AP-индекс: 018
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The strongest activity was a C4.8 flare with peak time 21:54 UTC on Dec 01, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294). A total of 10 sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 709 remains the largest and most complex region, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. Other notable regions are SIDC Sunspot Group 712 (NOAA Active Region 4296) and SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299), both classified as magnetic type beta-gamma, the later rotating more fully onto the visible disk. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flares and chances of isolated X-class flaring. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Coronal holes: An negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH SIDC 140), which first crossed the central meridian on Nov 30 continues to reside there. A high speed stream emanating from it is expected to arrive at Earth from Dec 03 onwards. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed varied in the range of 378 km/s to 508 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, remained weak with a maximum value of 6.7 nT and a minimum Bz component of - 4.3 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be at background slow solar wind conditions until early UTC evening of Dec 03 when a mild high speed stream arrival related to coronal hole SIDC 140 is expected to arrive at Earth. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Predominantly quiet to unsettled condition are expected for the next 24 hours. Active levels and isolated minor storm conditions might be reached on Dec 03 and Dec 04 with an anticipated mild high speed stream arrival. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels. Some enhancements in the proton flux might be expected over the next days related to possible eruptive activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 687, SIDC Sunspot Group 709 or SIDC Sunspot Group 712. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 10 MeV electron flux (as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19) has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold again over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 176,
получено на основе анализа результатов 07 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 01 Dec 2025
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 184
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: ///
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 014
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 012
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 011
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 145,
получено на основе анализа результатов 09 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
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