QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 3 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 02 1231 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10302
Состояние солнечной активности на 02 Mar 2021, 1230UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 02 Mar 2021 до 04 Mar 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 02 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 071, A-индекс: 013
Прогноз на 03 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 071, A-индекс: 017
Прогноз на 04 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 071, A-индекс: 010

Комментарий (на английском языке): Apart from a small new Alpha region that is already decaying again, the Sun is spotless, and it did not produce any C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 1%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours; moderate values are possible in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR first decreased from about 470 km/s to about 350 km/s and then increased again to about 590 km/s, possibly related to the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with the negative polarity southern crown coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on February 26. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 12 nT, with current values around 8 nT. Bz was not below -5 nT for extended periods. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 2, 3 and 4, with a chance for minor geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 5).Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 012,
получено на основе анализа результатов 16 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 01 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Плотность потока излучения: 071
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 024
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): ///
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 028
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 010,
получено на основе анализа результатов 28 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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