QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 13 марта 2021

Опубликовано: 2021 Mar 12 1236 UTC

SIDC URSIGRAM 10312
Состояние солнечной активности на 12 Mar 2021, 1236UT
Прогноз сделан для периода с 1230UT, 12 Mar 2021 до 14 Mar 2021)
Солнечная активность: очень низкая. Вероятность вспышек C-класса менее 50%
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Протонные вспышки: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 12 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 076, A-индекс: 013
Прогноз на 13 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 075, A-индекс: 031
Прогноз на 14 Mar 2021: плотность потока солнечного излучения: 074, A-индекс: 031

Комментарий (на английском языке): The Catania group 78/90 (NOAA 2808) developed small spots in its trailing part, but produced no noticeable activity in the past 24 hours. The X-ray flux remained below B-level. The newly-named NOAA 2809 region has a simple magnetic configuration and is not expected to produce any significant X-flare activity. Only background activity is expected for the next 24 hours. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in coronagraph data. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked over the 1000 pfu event threshold during its diurnal maximum but it is expected to be weaker today. However, beyond the next 24 hours, the electron flux is expected to increase gradually due to the expected increase in solar wind velocities. The 24h electron fluence remained at moderate levels but it is expected to be reduced in the following 24 hours. The solar wind continued to be in slow regime and its speed declined to almost 300 km/s. At around 06:00UT the expected boundary crossing occurred (into the negative sector with the magnetic field towards the sun), while the solar speed continued to decline gradually. Leading up to and following the boundary crossing, the interplanetary magnetic field increased to over 9 nT, while the Bz has been negative for a long period and gradually dropped to -8 nT. An increase in the solar speed is expected and is estimated to reach 500 km/s gradually. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp: 0-3, local K Dourbes: 1-3). An increase to active conditions may occur due to the boundary crossing that took place and the enhanced solar wind conditions that are expected over the next days.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 012,
получено на основе анализа результатов 18 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 11 Mar 2021
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 024
Плотность потока излучения: 078
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 013
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 003
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 003
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 021,
получено на основе анализа результатов 18 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES

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