QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 5 февраля 2026

Опубликовано: 04 февраля 2026 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 60204
Состояние солнечной активности на 04 февраля 2026, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 04 февраля 2026: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 178 / AP-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 05 февраля 2026: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180 / AP-индекс: 013
Прогноз на 06 февраля 2026: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180 / AP-индекс: 029
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. There was one X-class flare and numerous M-class flares in the past 24 hours. All the major solar activity originates at SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) currently located at N13E07, with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and growing over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a X1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 6857) peaking on February 03 at 14:08 UTC. Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and X-class flares possible. Note: there is an X-flare ongoing at the time this bulletin is been sent, it will be reported in a separated PRESTO and in tomorrow's ursigram. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the last 24 hours. Solar wind: The solar wind speed at Earth is currently low, around 330 km/s. A sector boundary crossing was observed on February 3 at 18:30 UTC, during which the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation changed from toward to away from the Sun. Slightly disturbed solar wind conditions began at 08:00 UTC on February 4, likely caused by a minor ICME glancing blow corresponding to a CME from 30–31 January. Currently, the IMF is about 12 nT, with Bz at –3 nT. Over the next 24 hours, we expect the arrival of the ICME associated with the CME from February 2 (linked to the X8.1 flare). This ICME already passed Solar Orbiter, as measured by the MAG and SWA instruments, at 17:00 UTC on February 3, which may indicate a slightly earlier arrival at Earth —by a few hours— than the previous forecast of 06:00 UTC on February 5. Nevertheless, the actual arrival time may not shift significantly, since the ICME is propagating into very low solar wind speeds, close to 300 km/s. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Moderate storm levels (K up to 6) can be expected with the ICME (from the 2 February CME) arrival on 5 February. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) is crossing the central meridian, becoming better magnetically connected with the Earth and increasing the risk of a proton storm. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has been mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the last 24 hours. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 154,
получено на основе анализа результатов 09 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 03 Feb 2026
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 223
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 178
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 006
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 007
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 005
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 165,
получено на основе анализа результатов 11 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
03 0941 1012 1028 N14E14 M3.6 1F 10/4366
03 1358 1408 1418 ////// X1.5 10/4366
03 1445 1456 1503 ////// M7.2 10/4366 III/1
03 1629 1636 1640 ////// M2.1 10/4366
03 1753 1808 1822 ////// M2.5 10/4366
03 2231 2250 2256 ////// M2.0 10/4366
03 2256 2309 2320 N14E12 M3.4 SF 10/4366 III/2